A few days after I wrote the last betting article I realized that even though I think it is really useful, it is somehow written too complicated. This is why I decided to do the second part of the explanation of this betting system for NBA matches and here I will describe it with a simple example what I actually do.

Here’s the example:

Let’s say you have a meeting between San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers. In the results table, let’s take out the last six home games for San Antonio. Make it against Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dallas and Oklahoma.

In the game against Chicago, San Antonio managed to score 108 points, while the team of Chicago has allowed an average of 98 points per game in their last six games. This means that San Antonio goes out of this match with a factor of 0.09. However, in the match against Washington, San Antonio scored 102 points and the average number of points allowed from Washington in the last 6 games is 106. The coefficient from this match for San Antonio is -0.03.

Then I collect all six betting coefficient for San Antonio. Let’s say they have 0.12.

In their last six games San Antonio have scored an average of 105.5 points per game, which number you have to multiply by (0.12 +1) = 1.12 or the expected number of points scored by San Antonio will be 118.

Of course, Lakers have better defence than Washington and Charlotte, so we do the same for them, but with the number of points the team allowed in their matches. We get an average score of 96 points allowed per game.

We take the average of the two results or 107 points and make the assumption that this will be the average number of points scored by San Antonio in this meeting.

We do exactly the same calculations for the Lakers’ matches as a guest, taking into account the points realized by Kobe Bryant and company and compare it with the allowed points from San Antonio as a host. So we get the most probable number of points made by Lakers. Let’s say 105.

Ultimately, our assumption for this meeting is an advantage for San Antonio of 2 points and about 212 total points scored by both teams in the match.

The NBA season is near to its end and we have less than a month until the last match from the regular season to be played. All of the played matches so far have given me the opportunity to check out many betting theories and of course some of them were interesting and profitable, some weren’t.

At least for me it is clear what I am going to bet in the next NBA season and honestly I can’t wait for the season to start. My main betting idea is related to the results of the last 6 matches played by both teams in a match.

I will do it in two types of bets – under over total points scored by both teams and winning margin in the match.

How exactly I will collect the betting data? Here comes the tricky part, but I hope I can explain it properly.

It is clear that after every match I am going to record the results of both teams. From the results table I will use the last 6 home games played by the host and the last 6 meetings as a guest for the visiting team.

I will compare the number of points scored and received by the host of each match with the average number of points scored and allowed of the last 6 games of their opponents. Thus I will have a better idea of the team’s shape. If the team has scored more points than the average allowed by its opponent than it is in a better shape and vice versa.

I am going to do it six times for each of the matches played by the host and the guest. Because of the gap I will receive a betting coefficient that indicates what the shape of both teams is, compared to the shape of its opponents.

Finally, I will summarize the number of scored points in the last six games for each team and I will multiply the betting data to the shape ratio.

When I am ready with this I will have a real guess which of the two teams in what form is and how many points are most likely both teams to score.

I will compare the result with the proposed by the bookmaker odds and where I find a potential for profit (usually use 7% margin) I will bet.

Bayern Munich showed a truly remarkable game in their first match against Arsenal won by Bayern with 3-1. The Germans were much better in at least two thirds of the match and their chances for qualifying to the quarterfinals look really serious.

The meeting tonight between Bayern Munich and Arsenal gives even greater advantage for the hosts, which wasn’t missed by the bookmakers. A Bayern’s victory is available at odds of 1.4 and the possible draw is estimated at 5.25. The bookmakers offer odds of 8 for Arsenal’s win tonight and 26 for them to continue in the tournament.

However, I will focus on the Asian Handicap on this match. My suggestion would be for a slightly lower odds bet this time, but at least it will be a safer bet.

In this match I suggest a victory for Arsenal with a handicap of two goals and odds of 1.47. This means that I will lose that bet if Bayern Munich wins the match with three clear goals. If Bayern wins with 2 goals my money will be returned and in all other cases I will win. Doesn’t sound that bad, right?

We mustn’t forget that Arsenal is a class team and a victory for Bayern wouldn’t be a surprise, but three goals difference is too big even for Bayern.

Arsenal showed that now they can’t match the Germans, but they still have something to show. They have fast strikers who could score a goal even from a tiny chance position.

On the other hand, I see no reason for Bayern’s players to risk an injury or something similar if they lead with two goals. If this happens, I believe the game will turn in a calm match where both teams will just wait to finish the match.

That’s why I think this bet is fully justified and is something that I will play for sure.