A few days after I wrote the last betting article I realized that even though I think it is really useful, it is somehow written too complicated. This is why I decided to do the second part of the explanation of this betting system for NBA matches and here I will describe it with a simple example what I actually do.
Here’s the example:
Let’s say you have a meeting between San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers. In the results table, let’s take out the last six home games for San Antonio. Make it against Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dallas and Oklahoma.
In the game against Chicago, San Antonio managed to score 108 points, while the team of Chicago has allowed an average of 98 points per game in their last six games. This means that San Antonio goes out of this match with a factor of 0.09. However, in the match against Washington, San Antonio scored 102 points and the average number of points allowed from Washington in the last 6 games is 106. The coefficient from this match for San Antonio is -0.03.
Then I collect all six betting coefficient for San Antonio. Let’s say they have 0.12.
In their last six games San Antonio have scored an average of 105.5 points per game, which number you have to multiply by (0.12 +1) = 1.12 or the expected number of points scored by San Antonio will be 118.
Of course, Lakers have better defence than Washington and Charlotte, so we do the same for them, but with the number of points the team allowed in their matches. We get an average score of 96 points allowed per game.
We take the average of the two results or 107 points and make the assumption that this will be the average number of points scored by San Antonio in this meeting.
We do exactly the same calculations for the Lakers’ matches as a guest, taking into account the points realized by Kobe Bryant and company and compare it with the allowed points from San Antonio as a host. So we get the most probable number of points made by Lakers. Let’s say 105.
Ultimately, our assumption for this meeting is an advantage for San Antonio of 2 points and about 212 total points scored by both teams in the match.